Poland 365-day annual gas storage outlook

365-day historical-analogue fan chart and winter-minimum outlook for Poland, generated by a recency-weighted seasonal block bootstrap over historical gas-year trajectories (not a probability distribution). Winter minimum central path (P50) is 41.3%, with a historical-analogue range of 33.4% (P10) to 52.7% (P90). The share of historical-analogue paths breaching the 15% critical threshold falls in the <10% band; for the 10% emergency threshold the <10% band (reported as coarse bands, not exact percentages, given the small effective sample of distinct historical years). The Scenario Lab below lets analysts inject custom supply, demand, or temperature shocks — deterministic consequence analyses with no occurrence probability — and inspect the impact on the full quantile bands.