Germany 365-day annual gas storage outlook

Probabilistic 365-day fan chart and winter-minimum projection for Germany, generated by a recency-weighted seasonal block bootstrap over historical gas-year trajectories. Winter minimum P50 is 23.4% (P10 0.0%, P90 54.1%). Modelled probability of breaching the 15% critical threshold is 47.6%; below the 10% emergency threshold 26.8%. The Scenario Lab below lets analysts inject custom supply, demand, or temperature shocks and inspect the impact on the full quantile bands.

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Annual outlook workflow

Annual Storage Outlook and Corridor Stress Lab

Start with the baseline for Germany, add one scenario at a time, then use corridor flows as outage seeds when you want to test network-driven downside.

1. Understand baseline
Read the fan chart and key risk metrics first. Treat it as the reference state before any intervention.
2. Add one scenario
Use presets, corridor outages, or a custom stress test. The chart and scenario lab now share one consistent state.
3. Inspect corridor drivers
Use the corridor explorer to inspect stressed routes and turn them into outage seeds without leaving the page.
Baseline outlook

See the annual storage path before editing scenarios

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Model details, regression coefficients, and validationMethodology §8 →
Scenario lab

Stress-test one path at a time

Use the shared scenario state to compare the baseline against one focused intervention instead of stacking many overlapping lines.

Build one scenario at a time
Quick presets, corridor outages, and custom stress tests now feed the same shared scenario state.
Quick scenarios
Corridor explorer

Inspect network drivers and turn them into outage seeds

The table is the main control surface. Use filters to isolate stressed corridors, then send one route into the scenario lab without leaving the page.

Cross-Border Gas Flows

Use the table to create outage seeds. The map stays as orientation and linked context.

No flow data available. Run the pipeline to populate network_graph.json.
Data: GIE AGSI+ / ENTSO-G · mh-analytics.eu
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