Italy 365-day annual gas storage outlook

Probabilistic 365-day fan chart and winter-minimum projection for Italy, generated by a recency-weighted seasonal block bootstrap over historical gas-year trajectories. Winter minimum P50 is 41.0% (P10 27.2%, P90 65.7%). Modelled probability of breaching the 15% critical threshold is <0.5%; below the 10% emergency threshold <0.5%. The Scenario Lab below lets analysts inject custom supply, demand, or temperature shocks and inspect the impact on the full quantile bands.