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Data: GIE AGSI+ / ENTSO-G · mh-analytics.eu
Probabilistic 365-day fan chart and winter-minimum projection for Netherlands, generated by a recency-weighted seasonal block bootstrap over historical gas-year trajectories. Winter minimum P50 is 0.0% (P10 0.0%, P90 33.3%). Modelled probability of breaching the 15% critical threshold is 73.4%; below the 10% emergency threshold 73.4%. The Scenario Lab below lets analysts inject custom supply, demand, or temperature shocks and inspect the impact on the full quantile bands.