Poland 365-day annual gas storage outlook

Probabilistic 365-day fan chart and winter-minimum projection for Poland, generated by a recency-weighted seasonal block bootstrap over historical gas-year trajectories. Winter minimum P50 is 43.3% (P10 13.4%, P90 49.9%). Modelled probability of breaching the 15% critical threshold is 11.4%; below the 10% emergency threshold <0.5%. The Scenario Lab below lets analysts inject custom supply, demand, or temperature shocks and inspect the impact on the full quantile bands.