Austria's aggregated gas storage is at 37.4% (48. percentile vs. the same calendar day across history). The 14-day ARIMAX forecast P50 ends at 39.8% (P10–P90 range 36.3% to 42.3%). The winter-minimum projection is 27.9% (P10 5.2%, P90 85.6%); the modelled probability of breaching the 15% critical threshold this winter is 28.2%. Calibrated daily from AGSI+, ENTSO-G, SMARD, TTF and Open-Meteo.