Czech Republic's aggregated gas storage is at 29.1% (29. percentile vs. the same calendar day across history). The 14-day ARIMAX forecast P50 ends at 30.6% (P10–P90 range 23.4% to 40.3%). The winter-minimum projection is 21.4% (P10 1.1%, P90 46.4%); the modelled probability of breaching the 15% critical threshold this winter is 24.3%. Calibrated daily from AGSI+, ENTSO-G, SMARD, TTF and Open-Meteo.