France's aggregated gas storage is at 30.1% (54. percentile vs. the same calendar day across history). The 14-day ARIMAX forecast P50 ends at 38.1% (P10–P90 range 32.4% to 43.7%). The winter-minimum projection is 19.1% (P10 3.8%, P90 32.5%); the modelled probability of breaching the 15% critical threshold this winter is 47.8%. Calibrated daily from AGSI+, ENTSO-G, SMARD, TTF and Open-Meteo.