France's aggregated gas storage is at 54.7% (10. percentile vs. the same calendar day across history). The 14-day ARIMAX forecast P50 ends at 56.9% (P10–P90 range 53.1% to 62.8%). The winter-minimum projection is 3.7% (P10 0.0%, P90 18.0%); the modelled probability of breaching the 15% critical threshold this winter is 76.7%. Latest available model snapshot from AGSI+, ENTSO-G, SMARD, TTF and Open-Meteo.