France's aggregated gas storage is at 44.2% (42. percentile vs. the same calendar day across history). The 14-day ARIMAX forecast P50 ends at 51.0% (P10–P90 range 46.1% to 55.6%). The winter-minimum projection is 13.9% (P10 3.5%, P90 29.9%); the modelled probability of breaching the 15% critical threshold this winter is 53.4%. Latest available model snapshot from AGSI+, ENTSO-G, SMARD, TTF and Open-Meteo.