Poland gas storage · fill level and forecastGas storage in detail
Where the fill level stands, where the model expects it in 14 days, and how likely a drop below the 15% alarm threshold is.
In brief
On gas day 28 October 2026, gas storage in Poland was 99.1% full (37 of 37 TWh). Provisional AGSI+ value. That is above normal for late October. The 14-day forecast expects about 96% on 11 November 2026, with an 80% range of 92% to 99%. The probability of storage being below the 15% alarm level on forecast day 14 is below 1%. This is a model extrapolation: storage has not been near that level in the reference data.
14-day forecast
Median path with the P10–P90 band against the five-year range. Longer ranges show the full history.
Breach risk
Probability of falling below 15% per forecast day, and how well the model is calibrated for this country.
Fill level and facilities
Questions and answers
- What does the 80% range mean?
- It is the band between the 10th and 90th percentile (P10–P90) of the model's simulated paths: eight out of ten outcomes should fall inside it. Whether they do is checked every day on the track record page.
- Why does the forecast start before today?
- AGSI+ publishes each gas day with a delay of one to two days. The model estimates those unpublished days first (the light grey segment in the chart), then forecasts 14 days from today.
- Why is 15% the alarm level?
- It is not a legal trigger: EU Regulation 2017/1938 and § 53a EnWG set no fill-level numbers. The 15% line follows Bundesnetzagentur communications from 2022/23 and industry practice, and below it reservoir pressure and withdrawal rates fall. The probability shown is the share of 2,000 simulated paths that end below 15% on forecast day 14.
- What is a gas day?
- The gas industry's day runs from 06:00 to 06:00 German time (CET in winter, CEST in summer). Storage and flow figures refer to that day, not to the calendar day, and storage operators publish them on GIE AGSI+ the following evening.