Poland's aggregated gas storage is at 61.2% (72. percentile vs. the same calendar day across history). The 14-day ARIMAX forecast P50 ends at 69.0% (P10–P90 range 65.2% to 72.5%). The winter-minimum projection is 43.4% (P10 13.8%, P90 49.9%); the modelled probability of breaching the 15% critical threshold this winter is 11.4%. Latest available model snapshot from AGSI+, ENTSO-G, SMARD, TTF and Open-Meteo.