Poland's aggregated gas storage is at 43.0% (52. percentile vs. the same calendar day across history). The 14-day ARIMAX forecast P50 ends at 45.6% (P10–P90 range 40.9% to 48.7%). The winter-minimum projection is 43.3% (P10 22.1%, P90 49.5%); the modelled probability of breaching the 15% critical threshold this winter is <0.5%. Calibrated daily from AGSI+, ENTSO-G, SMARD, TTF and Open-Meteo.