Italy's aggregated gas storage is at 82.3% (25. percentile vs. the same calendar day across history). The 14-day ARIMAX forecast P50 ends at 84.2% (P10–P90 range 80.5% to 86.0%). The winter-minimum projection is 35.9% (P10 28.8%, P90 48.3%); the modelled probability of breaching the 15% critical threshold this winter is <0.5%. Latest available model snapshot from AGSI+, ENTSO-G, SMARD, TTF and Open-Meteo.