Italy's aggregated gas storage is at 55.3% (58. percentile vs. the same calendar day across history). The 14-day ARIMAX forecast P50 ends at 59.5% (P10–P90 range 57.3% to 61.4%). The winter-minimum projection is 41.0% (P10 27.1%, P90 66.2%); the modelled probability of breaching the 15% critical threshold this winter is <0.5%. Latest available model snapshot from AGSI+, ENTSO-G, SMARD, TTF and Open-Meteo.