Italy's aggregated gas storage is at 68.0% (35. percentile vs. the same calendar day across history). The 14-day ARIMAX forecast P50 ends at 71.9% (P10–P90 range 69.8% to 73.8%). The winter-minimum projection is 39.0% (P10 27.9%, P90 63.8%); the modelled probability of breaching the 15% critical threshold this winter is <0.5%. Latest available model snapshot from AGSI+, ENTSO-G, SMARD, TTF and Open-Meteo.